clouds wrote:black drum wrote:tgk wrote:Warming climate means more moisture in the air means more volatile weather
Yes I know this, and so that's basically my question - is this "volatility" unusual?
for the midwest not the volatility or even the amount of it in a particular year/season. in reference to both flooding and sever weather. the midwest has had a lot of shitty years all throughout recorded history.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_N ... _outbreaks
i think the biggest change we will see going forward is the frequency of really bad years/seasons. 500 year events will become 100. 100 will become 10, 10 year events will happen all the fuckin time.
as far as tornadoes, yeah some of it has changed when we are talking about tornado warnings. in 2007 they went to the storm based polygon system. in the old days it was just for a whole county. the new system is way better but can cause multiple warning where prior to 2007 there may have been just 1. radar has gotten better too, as mentioned upthread, so radar indicated warnings are more frequent especially with weaker circulation.
also something to note many of the tornadoes we've seen in oklahoma recently have came from MCS (mesoscale convective system) which basically just means a larger, longer lasting storm than a supercell. MCS tornadoes are usually on the weaker side but not always (we just had an MCS EF3 kill 2 people on OK). but an MCS last so damn long we can see warning after warning and tornado after tornado for hours. they just keep spinning up.
juxtapose that with may 1999 or may 2013 which were supercell outbreaks that produced the massive killer longtrack tornados. this has basically been a situation (in ok) where we have a fuckin MCS every day all day and then every afternoon it's tornado warning time as they spin up along it.
parts of eastern iowa had two 500 year events in about 15 years. not great!